The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
| ISBN: | 9780141034591 |
| Publication date: | 28th February 2008 |
| Author: | Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
| Publisher: | Penguin Books an imprint of Penguin Books Ltd |
| Format: | Paperback |
| Pagination: | 480 pages |
| Genres: |
Philosophy: epistemology and theory of knowledge Risk assessment Probability and statistics |