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Technical Traders and Commodity Speculators
Most investors do not get involved in speculation or commodities, but speculators play a vital function in financial markets by absorbing and managing risk. Technical traders practically ignore business results within specific companies, instead focusing on broad market indicators such as price trends, trading volume, and rate of change in major stock market averages. The Secrets of the Great Investors series is a collection of presentations that explain, in understandable language, the strategies, tactics, and principles that have produced great wealth, and how you can improve your financial future. History's greatest investors used powerful investing philosophies to produce superior results, and you can learn from their successes and mistakes.
Bruce Babcock, Lyn M. Sennholz (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, Cycles and Waves
Contrarians and bargain hunters seek investment opportunities by departing from conventional thinking. They study the psychology of markets to exploit mistakes caused by crowd behavior (i.e. the herd instinct). A pure contrarian acts simply in opposition to everyone else; a second type questions all commonly accepted beliefs and trends, acting independently only if appropriate; a third type becomes contrarian accidentally, by following some preferred line of reasoning to its logical conclusions . Notable contrarians and bargain hunters have included Humphrey Neill, David Dreman, Richard Band, John Neff, and George Putnam. Market fluctuations have long attracted analysts who try to find predictive cycles and waves of market behavior. Well-documented cycles include: the Kitchen cycle (inventories, 3-5 years); the Juglar Cycle (fixed investment patterns, 7-11 years); and Kuznets Cycle (building patterns, 15-25 years). Other more controversial theories include: the Kondratyev Cycle (also called "the long economic cycle," about 54 years) in three stages of upswing, crisis, and depression. The Babsonchart of business barometers uses statistics and charts to model a 20-year cycle in four stages: overexpansion, decline, depression, and improvement. The Dow Theory (based on work by Charles Dow, William Hamilton and Robert Rhea) postulated three simultaneous movements: (1) narrow, daily movements; (2) "short swings," over weeks or months; and (3) the "main movement," lasting at least three years. The Elliott Wave Theory postulates a 200-year, eight-wave cycle consisting of five waves up and three waves down, along with cycles within cycles.
Janet Lowe, Ken Fisher (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Wall Street and Its Mystery Men
For two centuries, Wall Street has symbolized American capitalism; since the early 20th century, it has been a financial symbol for the entire world. Wall Street’s development has been a story of technological change, business ingenuity and economic growth. Wall Street’s most important functions are investment banking and security trading; for much of its history, trading and speculation have bee a free and vigorous game of every man for himself. Since the 1930s, however, governments have paid an increasingly important role in shaping Wall Street, and the later 20th century has seen increasing global pressures as well. “Wall Street’s Mystery Men” reviews some of the most colorful and fascinating personalities from the past two centuries: J.P. Morgan, one of the greatest Wall Street titans, dominated the banking industry, organized American’s railroad and steel industries, and even bailed out the U.S. Treasury in 1895. Jay Gould was as famous as Morgan, but much more notorious; he tore down other empires to amass his own fortune. Hetty Green, Wall Street’s first female financier, parlayed a $6 million inheritance into a $100 million fortune, and feared assassination the entire time. Diamond Jim Brady was an emblem of the 1890s, whose activities showed a fascinating blend of shrewdness and luck. Jesse Livermore lived flamboyantly before meeting his ruin and tragic death.Bernard Baruch made a fortune in the Market, then moved on to politics and became a presidential advisor. Joseph Kennedy speculated his way to a $500 million fortune; he later headed the new Securities and Exchange Commission and fathered a U.S. President.
Ken Fisher, Robert Sobel (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Leon Walras (1834-1910) transformed economics from a literary discipline into a mathematical, deterministic science. For the first time, Walras expressed rigorously the view that all markets are related, and that their relationships can be described and analyzed mathematically. These interrelated markets tend toward a "general equilibrium" position, undergoing a constant interactive adjustment process that Walras called a "tatonnement". This conception of economics led to important new insights about the stability of markets and about the capitalist economic system. A follower of Walras, Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923), viewed economics as part of the broader science of sociology, extending Walrasian analysis to say that society at large is an equilibrium system. This view profoundly influenced the modern course of the "social sciences", in which quantitative techniques have become standard analytical tools. Many later scholars have been awarded the Nobel Prize for developing the Walrasian analysis of capitalism.
Donald Walker, Dr. Donald Walker (Author), Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Thorstein Veblen and Institutionalism
Institutionalism is an economic point of view that emphasizes the role of social organization and structure in modern economic life. Thorstein Veblen (1857-1929), an American son of Norwegian immigrants was instrumental in creating this school of thought in the early twentieth century, and he vigorously attacked what he regarded as the privileged “leisure class” in American. To Institutionalists, the important “institutions” of economic life include customs, habits, morals, and laws. These are believed to be more important in shaping economic life than are marketplace principles. Institutionalists emphasize a historical interpretation of social life, asserting that economic generalizations should be relevant to time and place. They believe that economics has few absolute principles, and therefore that economics cannot be a rigorous science. Institutionalist ideas greatly influenced economic policies that were created in response to the Great Depression. Among the most important followers of this tradition in the late twentieth century has been John Kenneth Galbraith.
Dr. William Peterson (Author), Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Taxes, Estate Planning, and Asset Protection
To accumulate wealth, you must do more than invest well. You also must protect yourself (and your estate) against losses stemming from poor tax planning, vulnerability to lawsuits, property forfeiture laws, and probate. In the U.S., the first income tax was imposed from 1862 to 1870, to pay for the expenses of the Civil War. In 1894 another income tax was imposed, but was declared unconstitutional in 1895. After the Sixteenth Amendment was ratifies in 1913, income taxes were here to stay, and legal tax avoidance eventually becomes a concern of Americans of virtually all incomes. Tax avoidance techniques, or devices include tax havens, tax shelters, tax exempt bonds, life insurance, tax deferred annuities, retirement savings accounts, tax-deferred growth stocks, trusts, corporation, and transferring income to lower-bracket family members. Legal tax avoidance becomes illegal tax evasion if the taxpayer a (goes beyond the bounds of the law, and b) does so with the intent to evade taxes. While you are alive, other important threats to your assets include lawsuits (which increasingly make wealth vulnerable to aggressive litigants), and U.S. forfeiture laws (which can make property vulnerable to government agencies, even if you are not charged with a crime). Asset protection essentially involves planning the manner in which you hold title to assets, and in which you structure your business affairs. Asset protection typically is an adjunct to estate planning, a complicated matter usually requiring the advice of an attorney an/or professional estate planner. Probate, the legal process for settling an estate, can be very expensive; the techniques for avoiding probate include revocable living trusts; Joint Tenancy with Rights of Survivorship (JWTROS); payable-on-death accounts (a.k.a. Totten Trusts); naming a beneficiary on pensions and retirement accounts; giving away property while still alive; life insurance planning; and others.
Michael Ketcher, Vernon K. Jacobs (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Swiss Gnomes and Global Investing
Swiss bankers are often called "gnomes", after the trolls of Swiss mythology. They are said to have great power, but are seldom seen-and are discreet to the point of being elusive and enigmatic. The Swiss banking industry has centuries of experience as a safe haven for international deposits and investments. Its competitive strengths are based in strong rights to privacy, a highly stable currency, and a virtually impenetrable system of military defense that exploits Switzerland's mountainous terrain. Switzerland's version of democracy also prevents the accumulation of power, making its political order highly stable and conservative. In Switzerland, change occurs very slowly - if at all. International commerce is thousands of years old, yet most investors still concentrate their attention on their home turf. Global investing does involve a number of complicating factors (such as currency risk, language barriers, variances in accounting practices and legal systems, ect.) But the truth is that global, investing can reduce risk by diversifying your portfolio beyond one economy, and it can increase returns by putting your money in faster growing markets (e.g. Asia and Latin America). Technology is making the world a smaller place, and some of tomorrow's best success stories will be found in foreign markets. This presentation puts forward the case for global investing, and discusses the techniques and insights of John Templeton, George Soros, Jim Rogers, and other gurus of international investing.
Alex Green, Ron Holland (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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Stock Frauds, Manipulations, and Insider Trading
An early form of stock fraud was watering, where more shares were issued and sold that were authorized by the company (thus diluting the value of all shares) In a corner, traders sought to control so much of a stock that short sellers (who had borrowed shares and sold the with the expectation of buying back later at lower prices) were forced to buy shares they owed from the manipulator, on his terms. Famous corners included First Harlem Railroad and the famous Erie raids. The Ponzi scheme (or pyramid scheme) perfected by Charles Ponzi in the 1920's, is the investment equivalent of a chain letter, with returns for early investors, until all collapses when new investment runs dry. After the 1929 stock market crash, the securities reform of the 1930's curbed many types of fraud and manipulation. Insider trading is a longstanding issue in securities markets. The issue essentially is how fair and equitable trading can be maintained despite great differences among traders in their knowledge of a company's affairs. After the Securities Act of 1933 created the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 gave the commission powers, a 1942 rule known as Rule 10-b-5 established guidelines for stock purchases by major market players or insiders. A series of Supreme Court cases in the 1950s and '60s elaborated the laws on insider trading, and scandals of the 1980s led to still further attempts at reform. Analysis of stock trades by company officials (insiders) remains a poplar type of analysis that guides many purchases of stock.
D. Christensen, Donald J. Christensen, M. Dykstra, T. D. Saler, Thomas D. Saler (Author), Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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The classical economists pioneered a new way of thinking about the uniquely human tendency to produce, trade, consume, and accumulate. Adam Smith (1723-1790) explained how the division of labor expands productive power and argued for freedom in economic affairs; Smith attempted to explain the basis of value, prices, the role of money, and other important concepts related to prosperity and an improved standard of living for all members of society. David Ricardo (1772-1823), a London stockbroker, developed the concept of diminishing returns, the wages-fund doctrine, and classical rent theory. Another classical theorist, Thomas Malthus (1776-1834), proposed that workers are doomed to subsistence wages, because populations increase geometrically while food production increases arithmetically. Other classical economists, including James Mill, John Stuart Mill, and Nassau Senior, extended and refined classical economics to meet new controversies and ideas throughout the nineteenth century.
Dr. E.G. West, E. G. West (Author), Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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The German Historical School of Economics
In the middle and late 1800's, a group of German university professors developed the study of economics as a historical discipline, emphasizing careful analysis of real-world circumstances rather than abstract "principles" and "laws". Led by Gustav von Schmoller (1838-1917), these professors denounced the abstract theories of classical economists and their ideas of "natural law", believing that these ideas had very little empirical foundation and offered no solutions to pressing social problems under laissez faire. These German scholars feared Marxist agitation and the socialist takeover of Germany, seeking instead a middle ground between laissez faire and possible Marxist revolution. They pressed for social welfare legislation that would relieve the misery of the underprivileged; they wanted to preserve the market economy, parliamentary democracy, and private ownership of the means of production. This welfare legislation passed in the 1880's, and has been emulated in Scandinavia, the United States, and other countries.
Dr. Nicholas Balabkins, Nicholas Balabkins (Author), Dan Church, Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser, Paul Meier, Travis Hardison (Narrator)
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The Austrian Case for the Free Market Process
Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) and Friedrich Hayek (born 1899) were perhaps the foremost defenders of the free market and limited government during the mid-twentieth century ascendancy of Keynesian economics. Mises highlighted the problem of economic calculation in non-market economics. He saw the price system as the basis of economic calculation, and emphasized the importance of sound money for it to work properly. He denounced the government manipulation of money, and saw government credit expansion as the cause of the economic boom that collapsed in the Great Depression. Mises created an all-encompassing theory of economics as a system of human action. Hayek emphasized the role of knowledge in economics, asserting that man "cannot acquire the full knowledge that would make mastery of events possible." He advocated a competitive system of privately issued currencies of a superior alternative to government control of the currency. Hayek insisted that capitalism has improved the living conditions of workers, contrary to popular conceptions. Hayek received the Nobel Prize in 1974.
Dr. William Peterson (Author), Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was without question the most influential economist of the twentieth century. His most important work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, was published in 1936, and it was widely perceived as offering plausible explanations and solutions for the Great Depression. Keynes' economic analysis was highly complex and subtle. It suggested that capitalism is vulnerable to instability caused by insufficient consumer demand. He emphasized the reluctance of workers to accept reductions in nominal wages, preventing free market adjustments to unemployment Keynes also suggested the possibility of a "liquidity trap," which could prevent market forces from restoring full employment. Based on these and other perceived defects in the capitalist system, Keynes suggested government intervention in the economy, and modern politicians have accepted and applied Keynesian ideas with great enthusiasm.
Frank Vorhies, Fred Glahe, Professor Fred Glahe (Author), Lois Rukyser, Louis Rukeyser (Narrator)
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