Audiobooks by Dan Gardner

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How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovatio

Nothing is more inspiring than a big vision that becomes a triumphant, new reality. Think of how Apple's iPod went from a project with a single employee to an enormously successful product launch in eleven months. But they are the exception. Consider how London's Crossrail project delivered five years late and billions overbudget. More modest endeavours, whether launching a small business, organizing a conference, or just finishing a work project on time, also commonly fail. Why? Understanding what distinguishes the triumphs from the failures has been the life's work of Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg. In How Big Things Get Done, he identifies the errors that lead projects to fail, and the research-based principles that will make yours succeed: - Understand your odds. If you don't know them, you won't win. - Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quick feels right. But it's wrong. - Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there. - Find your Lego. Big is best built from small. - Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can't, so they fail. Flyvbjerg shows how you can. Full of vivid examples ranging from the building of the Sydney Opera House to the making of the latest Pixar blockbusters, How Big Things Get Done reveals how to get any ambitious project done - on time and on budget.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner (Author), Ben Shapiro, Rob Shapiro (Narrator)

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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway

In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; it then plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe-we all know how that turned out. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet, every day we ask them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Here is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. How good you are at predicting the future doesn't depend on your education or experience. It depends on how you think: like a fox or like a hedgehog. Foxes know a little about a lot of things. They have doubts. They often sound wishy-washy. And you don't see them on television much. On the other hand, hedgehogs know a lot about one thing. They are absolutely certain. They are confident. Almost every popular expert you can think of is a hedgehog. And they are experts at explaining away predictions they made that turned out to be wrong. For real insight into what is coming next, you need to consult foxes and think like one, too. Future Babble explains in detail what that means, and how you can tell foxes and hedgehogs apart. In this example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious audio book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics in delivering this reassuring message: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Dan Gardner (Author), Walter Dixon (Narrator)

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